Edge = Model Projection − Best Available Line. If the market says a hitter's line is 1.5 total bases and our model projects 2.4, the edge is +0.9. Simple as that.
Why edge matters
A line is the market's best guess. A projection is our model's best guess. When they disagree by a lot, either the market is missing something or our model is — and the size of the edge tells you how confident that disagreement is worth taking seriously.
How to read edge
- Small edge (under 0.3): the market and the model roughly agree. Not worth a lot of attention.
- Medium edge (0.3 – 0.8): real disagreement. Worth a look, but read the "why" before acting on it.
- Big edge (0.8+): the model sees something the market hasn't fully priced in. Almost always tied to a matchup, park, weather, or usage factor — read the breakdown.
Edge is not a guarantee
Edge measures disagreement, not certainty. A +2.0 edge on a low-confidence projection is not automatically better than a +0.6 edge on a high-confidence one. That's why every row on Prop Compare shows both.
Read edge with confidence
Confidence tells you how stable the projection is — sample size, injury risk, weather variance, lineup certainty. High edge + high confidence is the sweet spot. High edge + low confidence usually means something is unresolved (a game-time decision, a weather call).