Shohei Ohtani — Total Bases Over 1.5

Line Comparison

Same prop, priced across every tracked platform. The highlighted number is the softest available — that's your Best Line.

PrizePicks

1.5

Best line

Underdog

Sportsbook Avg

1.5

GDL Model

2.4

Model likes: Over

on PrizePicks

This isn't a hot-streak pick. The line is the softest on the market, the model is well above it, and the park + matchup back the Over.

First-pitch weather

Temperature, wind, and sky at the park — the same feed the model uses to adjust HR and total-base projections.

First-pitch conditions

Dodger Stadium

Fetching first-pitch conditions…

Here's why the model likes it

Our model projects 2.4 total bases. That's 0.9 over the PrizePicks line and 0.4 over Underdog — a clear lean to the Over.

Model projection is 60% above the PrizePicks line
Dodger Stadium is a top-5 park for extra-base hits
No recent injury history and full workload expected
Hitting 2nd guarantees 4+ plate appearances

Matchup factors

Facing a RHP with a 4.85 xFIP and elevated hard-hit rate allowed
Home game at Dodger Stadium (top-5 park factor for extra-base hits)
Wind blowing out to right-center at 8 mph
Ohtani hitting 2nd — guaranteed 4+ PAs
No injury flags; full workload expected

Recent and historical context

Last 5

2.2 TB / game

Last 10

1.9 TB / game

Season

1.8 TB / game

vs Opponent

2.5 TB / game (last 6)

vs Starter

3-for-8, 2 XBH

Here's what could go wrong

Early hook of the starter could limit high-leverage ABs
Rain in the forecast late — game could be shortened
Any lineup shuffle that drops him to a lower spot

How today's Best Line is chosen

For an Over recommendation we surface the lowest available number (less to clear). For an Under, the highest. For odds-based props we pick the price with the biggest implied edge vs the model. Every ten minutes we re-pull the lines and update this page.

Full explainer

Educational only. GameDayLocks compares lines and explains data-driven insights. We do not accept wagers, process bets, or guarantee results. Save picks to your slip and take them to a licensed operator if you choose to play — bets cannot be placed on this app.